30+ App Growth Experts’ Thoughts on Apple’s IDFA Changes
In late June, Apple announced a major change to User opt-in to sharing iOS Users’ Identifier for Advertisers (IDFA). Others (many links below) will dive into the technical details of the how’s, why’s, and what this change might mean for the mobile app marketing industry. This will be bad for some good companies which honed efficiencies in the mobile app advertising vertical, and helped almost any app with options and opportunities to find the best users (for the most part) matching their targeting requirements.
That said, in some ways, this change was needed. Not just for User privacy, but also because the mobile app industry has been lagging behind traditional business in structure, business plans, and treating themselves as an actual “business” with a focus not just on growth, but on the customer (ie User) experience, monetization models, and how to generate max revenue from a max-retained user base over the max amount of time. That’s a lot of maxing! Only fairly recently have many apps refocused from vanity growth metrics being measured mostly by active and new users, and more focused on retention and accurate LifeTime Value analysis.
To stay on topic, but finish that point; it’s cheaper and easier to keep an active user coming back than it is to find a new User, have them download your app, go through the onboarding process, and monetize over time to at least average per-user revenue expectations. Growth doesn’t just come from acquisition of users. True business growth comes from retaining monetized users as long as possible with a great experience which evangelizes them to spread the word to others as well. When you have great reviews and retention numbers, your app store organic rankability will rise. When you monetize effectively, you can count on an expected LifeTime Value per User which you can use as an internal benchmark to improve your product, monetization, and revenue generation strategy and not just a gauge on how much you should spend per user acquisition.
It’s now time for apps to grow up, and those apps based off solid tried-and-true business models of customer value, experience and monetization will be able to stay in business. The quick churn apps used to grinding out small margins with massive UA campaigns will be a thing of the past.
Many of the popular Advertising methods are going to be less reliable than they have been in the recent past, but there are some forecasts that this won’t be as apocalyptic for advertisers as some fear. However, to expect business as usual is not realistic, either. Certain channels will rise in value, or perceived value, while others will definitely fall.
To help us understand what lies ahead, and what the mobile app growth community of thought-leaders and experts are predicting, please read below! We gathered some brief thoughts on this from over 30+ app growth experts, and here they are, listed in alphabetical order!
App Growth Experts’ Thoughts:
Martje Abeldt | Patrick Amori | Juliana Assunção | Lior Barak | Michael Brooks | Jennifer Burrington | Allan Dionízio | Gadi Eliashiv | Vivek Girotra | David Gregson | Sergey Grytsuk | Michael Katz | André Kempe | Tim Koschella | Matthaus Krzykowski | Gabe Kwakyi | Jesse Lempiainen | David Leviev | Nathan Levin | Charles Manning | Paul Müller | Yaniv Nizan | Thomas Petit | Pau Quevedo | Brian Quinn | Peggy Anne Salz | Gabriel Sampaio | Mada Seghete | Eric Seufert | Pierre Strubelt | Alex Tarrand | Meiry Vaknin | Henry Wang | Yuriy Yashunin
Martje Abeldt
Affle
The IDFA deprecation, with no true deterministic alternative on the table yet, will require a shift of marketers’ mindsets on how to approach the iOS audience for mobile marketing. Agreement on probabilistic measurement to determine impact of campaigns will be crucial when collaborating with programmatic channels, giving room to revival of previously old-school methodologies, and more weight will be given to publisher performance as well as creative solutions to drive user satisfaction, engagement and monetization. Hence for the users opting out of the IDFA, we’ll be moving away from 1:1 attribution to a more holistic incrementality approach, short-term performance, as well as long-term branding concepts.
Martje is Affle’s CRO of RevX
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Patrick Amori
MOBE
With the new limitations of IDFA, it will be much harder for programmatic platforms to build user segments that would be then used to build higher-performing campaigns. We must now rely more on probabilistic data segments, which I believe will cause many companies who use programmatic, to scratch CPA offerings all together and go back to standard CPI campaigns. Our in-house programmatic platform, for example, already has over 5 billion device IDs/user segments, but going forward we will need to rely more heavily on apps sharing user data than ever before.
Patrick is MOBE’s Chief Growth Officer
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Juliana Assunção
RankMyApp
We can see how ads have been changing from the past decade and we, as mobile marketeers, should definitely be always prepared for new challenges, and new tech updates with the right business partners. If your marketing strategy is planned for external impacts and updates along its execution, you are one step ahead of the market.
Juliana is RankMyApp’s CMO & Founder
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Lior Barak
Tale About Data
We were all afraid of the European ePrivacy law that would block the app publishers from collecting User data. Well, Apple did it without a law, giving the Users power to share or not share the IDFA. Apple basically gives all Users the option to opt-out of tracking. The worst enemy of the marketing department is optimizing campaigns in the dark (with no data, or limited data) in hopes they wish to grow. The new change from Apple regarding the IDFA actually means we will have even more Users deciding not to share their information. This raises serious challenges in setting retargeting campaign budgets, and driving decisions on if an Advertiser should (or not) invest more or less money in their campaigns. This change will push more companies to build in-house algorithm solutions to decide how to optimize a campaign. As time goes on, this might increase the costs of acquiring and retaining each User.
Lior is Tale About Data’s Co-Founer
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Get Your Copy of “Data is Like a Plate of Hummus” by Lior Barak
Michael Brooks
WeatherBug
The IDFA “opt-in” functionality in iOS 14 represents the biggest shift in the mobile advertising industry to date. It’s going to fundamentally change how apps spend money and make money. The future belongs to apps and companies that provide real value to users, because the value exchange we’ve always talked about with consumers will now be front and center.
Michael is WeatherBug’s SVP of Revenue
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Jennifer Burrington
TrafficGuard
Opacity has always been a characteristic of the digital advertising ecosystem – and unfortunately, removal of IDFA is going to exacerbate that, to the detriment of the advertiser. Attribution is going to be harder, obviously frequency capping and retargeting as we know them will be off the table. With less transparency, fraud is likely to flourish, compounding the challenges of attribution and optimisation. At TrafficGuard, we already see a lot of invalid traffic masquerading as devices with LAT enabled. This has been a popular way for fraudsters to attempt to obfuscate details of traffic they are sending. The removal of IDFA is going to take this to the next level.
Jennifer is TrafficGuard’s SVP of Sales
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Allan Dionízio
RankMyApp
I think that one of the main problems with Apple’s new position regarding IDFA sharing is that we may have to depend on fingerprinting, which is not the most accurate system for attribution, and it also can lead to more fraud in the campaigns. It will be a new challenge for the whole ecosystem. But there’s a lot that we’re not sure yet, as Apple is still to share more information and updates.
Allan is RankMyApp’s Data Analyst of Mobile Performance
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Gadi Eliashiv
Singular
The IDFA we used to know and love will no longer be a valid ad measurement and optimization option. That doesn’t mean the end of mobile marketing on iOS; it means we have some work to do to ensure mobile marketers can still optimize, measure, and manage their campaigns. That’s why Singular was first to announce full support for SKAdNetwork, which is the Apple-provided alternative, while also aggressively continuing to work on inventing better, safer, and more granular methods as we believe the measurement reality will not have a single silver bullet.
Gadi is Singular’s CEO & Co-Founder,
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Read Singular’s Article on Measurement in a Post-IDFA World
Vivek Girotra
Elevate Labs
I think the Apple IDFA change is a seminal event for the entire mobile industry. There are many companies whose business models are going to get completely obliterated, and others whose lofty valuations are going to get severely cut down. Anyone who thinks otherwise is either foolhardy, or indulging in wishful thinking. At my company I’ve made this a Team OKR (Objectives & Key Results) for Q3. This way, we’re able to align teams and prioritize resources to upgrade SDK’s and all other changes that will be needed to retool the pipelines at our end.
My crystal ball predictions: Retargeting, device graphs, buying models like VO & tROAS, and companies that depend on real time data are dead in the water. Given the mainstream focus on privacy, Google will likely follow suit and the Android device ID will suffer the same fate soon. While SAN’s and MMP’s have suffered a huge punch to the gut, they are pervasive and resourceful enough and will figure out some solutions that the industry will eventually converge towards.
Vivek is Elevate Labs’ Senior Diretor of Growth Marketing
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David Gregson
MoPub
Retargeting campaigns are likely to be the most affected by Apple’s IDFA announcement. Retargeting is by definition disallowed for users that do not opt in to being tracked. Technically, it will become much harder to achieve, except perhaps within a given publisher’s network of apps. If advertisers wish to continue driving retargeted traffic back into their apps, then we may see retargeting campaigns move to within the domain of ‘cross promotional’ campaigns, where intra-publisher Device IDs could potentially be leveraged.
David is MoPub’s Sr Product Manager
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Sergey Grytsuk
Zephyr
In my opinion, iOS 14 shouldn’t damage those publishers who will adapt to it. There were rumors that this version was made against publishers with ads monetization models, but if we look closer, we can see that everybody can be harmed. The good news is that on iOS 14, we will not see Global LAT anymore. Probably this version will not change the marketing landscape dramatically. It shouldn’t be as with iOS 13 and subscriptions.
Sergey is Zephyr’s CMO
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Michael Katz
mParticle
It’s an important reminder that building a holistic customer data strategy is required to not only balance the personalization and privacy trade off, but also future proof against perpetual industry change. Brands that have a direct relationship with customers and deliver great customer experiences should have no problem adapting to the changes announced at WWDC.
Michael is mParticle’s CEO & Co-Founder,
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Read mParticle’s Article on the Future of Data-Driven Marketing
Follow Michael on Twitter
André Kempe
Admiral Media
The latest developments with the hashed on device attribution from Adjust is a massive step forward for the ad industry. We will certainly see the all-annoying cookie warnings in apps now, but at the same time it will improve Users’ privacy, and will also make sure app publishers’ advertising efforts are not shared across ad networks to be abused. For example, an ad network running a campaign for a good delivery app cannot re-use those device IDs for that app’s competitor’s campaign.
André is Admiral Media’s Founder & Admiral of the GrowBoat
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Learn More About GrowBoat
Tim Koschella
Kayzen
Looking at the impact of the new opt-in mechanism for IDFA on iOS 14, we have to look at effects on different products and use cases in the mobile ads market separately: attribution, retargeting, user acquisition, CRM and user profiling. All of them typically use the IDFA to some degree and depending on the possible workarounds and second best solutions they impact can vary a lot. At this stage, for lack of more accurate information from Apple, it is hard to assess the impact on each of them accurately.
At the end a lot comes down to the opt-in ratio. I believe anything is possible from as low as 10% to as high as 70% (I don’t believe in doomsayers claiming 99% will opt out), depending on how exactly Apple will allow to customize the dialogue screen and other implementation details. For example, whether app developers will be allowed to lock app experiences for non-consented users or whether the consent screen can be shown repeatedly to the same users.
Tim is Kayzen’s Founder & CEO
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Matthaus Krzykowski
Tenjin
These changes affect everyone in the industry. For example, on iOS, being an “MMP” does not matter anymore. It’s too early to say what IDFA alternatives the industry will choose. We are talking with various teams at Apple to make sure that we adapt to the changes.
Matthaus is Tenjin’s Head of Platform
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Gabe Kwakyi
Incipia
Assuming Apple firmly polices the spirit of its new stance, rooting out workarounds like fingerprinting or hard app usage gates forcing IDFA permissions, it’s back to targeting basics for mobile marketing and adieu addiction to incredible ROAS as ad networks’ hyper-efficient algorithmic targeting is nerfed by the sudden loss of massive user-ROI maps. While abrupt and overwhelming change is scary, let us also realize that this time inevitably will prove once more the ingenuity of the mobile marketing industry and yield a wealth of innovation – in advertising and beyond. Expect innovations in statistical modeling to maintain advertising ROI like organic uplift, channel incrementality and optimal channel mixes (which were already needed due to the proliferation of impression attribution, LAT and Google’s new untrackable iOS UAC search inventory), more thoughtful creative strategy (rather than the current modus operandi of churning creative out which doesn’t work with Apple’s 100 campaign limitations), and growth in organic, referral and influencer marketing.
Gabe is Incipia’s CEO
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Incipia Also Compiled a Great Blog Containing Links to iOS 14 IDFA Articles
Jesse Lempiäinen
Geeklab
I do believe that the most significant fundamental change will be about how we think of user acquisition as it is. It has shifted (especially with some niche genres) to really targeted Whale hunting, where the importance of event optimization has a lot more in play than it used to. Now that the whole industry loses the opportunity to do this, and practically all the retargeting, it will lead to advertisers focusing more on the only thing they can still effectively optimize creatives. The whole industry will shift back from the payback curve, data-focused marketing towards more creative advertisements with the actual creatives.
Jesse is Geeklab’s Co-Founder & Chairman
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David Leviev
Timehop
Speaking as a publisher, I’m curious on how DSPs and advertisers will conform to the new norm of targeting. The only unanimous notion I’ve received from both the supply and demand sects of the business is that there are too many unknowns to predict how this will play out. Personally, I believe roughly 5-10% of users will allow apps to enable/track their IDFA leaving a ton anonymous traffic left to be blindly bid or passed on. On Timehop, over the past few quarters, we’ve tinkered around with floor modifications on LAT traffic and have seen a balance of fill% and recouped revenue. Thankfully, our Nimbus bidding tech allows for IDFA traffic to have their own floor so that we may treat and price that inventory separately. I can imagine that PMPs and Programmatic Guarantees becomes a bigger focal point in the first 3 months of adopting Apple’s new policy.
David is the VP of Programmatic Product Development for Timehop/Nimbus
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Nathan Levin
Joom
Apple’s IDFA opt-in change levels the playing field for Influencer Marketing. Most UA teams dismiss Influencer Marketing channels because of the complexity involved with measuring the associated uplift. However, with all channels measured in a similar light through SKAdNetwork, this now opens up the door for Influencer Marketing to gain a significant market share of ad spend.
Nathan works in User Acquisition for Joom
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Charles Manning
Kochava
In preparation for the end of the cookie and increased limitation of the IDFA, alternative consumer identity solutions are now more important than ever.
At Kochava, we read the writing on the wall several years ago and began compiling identity solutions that are not reliant on a platform-specific advertising ID. We knew that to perform more effective and reliable attribution and measurement and create a holistic view of the consumer journey, we needed to look beyond the reliance on an IDFA. These include providing identity solutions, enabling contextual targeting (where no stable identifiers are used cross-property), and through frameworks like SKAdNetwork and XCHNG. We are working closely with clients, partners, and the ecosystem at-large on several solutions that will allow our clients to have a competitive advantage.
Charles is the CEO/President for Kochava
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Read Kochava’s Article on Post-WWDC 2020 Alternative Marketing Solutions
Paul Müller
Adjust
Apple has given the ecosystem two choices for attribution in the future. The AppTrackingTransparency Framework and SKAdNetwork. ATT allows for user-level attribution, and post-install analytics per campaign. Thanks to the opportunity of on-device attribution, MMPs will still be able to offer accurate and actionable data for the modern marketer. Our industry is innovative and has adapted to a lot of changes over the past years without losing steam. Adopting ATT is the next logical step to continue building on this unprecedented growth while respecting user privacy.
Paul is the CTO for Adjust
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Read Adjust’s Article on the Future of the Ad Ecosystem on iOS 14
Yaniv Nizan
Soomla
The Impact on Ad-LTV: Some of the ad providers and attribution platforms relay heavily on IDFA also provide some sort of Ad LTV or Ad Revenue attribution capability. You can safely assume that at the core of their Ad LTV service the identifier is IDFA and the APIs are currently based on IDFA as well so that’s a big change they will have to make for sure. The big question is, how effective it will be and when it will be fully ready?
The Impact on Ad-Monetization: From a publisher’s perspective, the loss of programmatic and header bidding is not so meaningful actually. The bigger impact will come from the loss of FAN and Admob super-targeted ads. To battle this what will likely happen is that publishers will roll out in September a mechanism that forces users to register:
IDFA popup first: If User opted-out, they will be forced to register with phone or email.
It’s possible that some type of mobile games – for example, hypercasual – will have more trouble getting users to signup so they might suffer more.
Yaniv is the CEO and Co-Founder for Soomla
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Read Soomla’s Article on IDFA-14’s Impact on Ad LTV & Ad Monetization
Thomas Petit
@ThomasBCN
The deprecation of the IDFA – partial on paper, but almost entirely in practice – is most likely the biggest change in the app industry since the birth of in-app purchases or maybe the App Store itself. And we’re talking about an industry used to live with extreme change pace!
It’s exact consequences remain to be determined at this point, depending on many yet-to-come details in execution (in particular around events & postbacks, how SANs & MMP will organise for it, etc), but IOS14 will definitely mark a before & after in app marketing, with Apple making a huge step into attribution arbitrage.
I’m concerned by some collateral damage (among others on remarketing & value optimization), but I believe this was long due and will be remembered as a net positive: weeding out some bad actors/practices, enhancing the respect of users consent & privacy, bringing an entire new light on attribution knowledge, and, hopefully even reshuffling some opportunities in an industry dominated by 2 players.
Thomas is an Internationally Respected and Renowned Growth Consultant
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and Follow ThomasBCN on Twitter
Pau Quevedo
Goodgame Studios
We were already expecting something in this direction since the rumors were increasing a lot in the last few weeks. IDFAs being the oil of the user acquisition industry, it’s clear it will have a severe impact on the Ad Tech industry.
In a return to a probabilistic marketing approach, maybe with PMP Deals and Contextual targeting coming back. From a publisher perspective it means we have to work on our 1st party data more so we can leverage it effectively. For UA the big players will probably find some way to remain as deterministic as possible, but for the smaller players it will probably get tougher. Retargeting remains an open question, we hope to see some solutions coming up in the near future.
Pau is a Lead Programmatic Trader at Goodgame Studios
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Brian Quinn
AppsFlyer
AppsFlyer shares Apple׳s values when it comes to protecting user privacy. We are proactively engaged in conversations with all major players in the ecosystem, starting with Apple.
Independent attribution is a cornerstone of today’s mobile ecosystem. Any substantial reduction in basic attribution capabilities would also substantially erode the trust from brands and businesses and negatively impact the value of ad inventory, publisher revenue streams, app discoverability, and more.
For AppsFlyer, attribution has always been and remains about creating reliable and independent measurement solutions with high accuracy beyond a single identifier. IDFA or not, we will continue working with our friends at Apple, and the entire ecosystem, to make sure that app developers have the right tools to keep building great apps that delight their customers while making privacy a priority.
Brian is the US President & General Manager for AppsFlyer
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Read AppsFlyer’s Blog “Future of the App Store Economy in a Privacy-Centric World”
Peggy Anne Salz
MobileGroove
Put simply: marketers will just have to do more to make sure their users don’t lapse in the first place. This means being smarter about how they re-engage their existing users because acquiring new ones, at least in the short-term, is not going to be a walk in the park. The real marketing rockstars will be the engagement marketers – experts who can identify and inspire their most valuable users based on the “what” of their actions, not the “who” of their identity since that’s going to be the industry’s new collective blindspot. Winning will be about wielding “true” visibility into how the best users are progressing through the journey —and moving these users from one stage to the next to influence the actions that drive the revenues.
Peggy is the Founder of MobileGroove
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Gabriel Sampaio
Rede Globo
iOS Users are the most valuable, and by making harder to reach them their value increases. The IDFA change is a UX and product challenge as well: advertisers must better communicate their product value to the user. A balanced and diversified media plan for UA strategy it is a must to keep healthy app growth with accurate targeting. Also, SKAdNetwork definitely need a rebranding.
Gabriel is the Acquisition & Performance Supervisor for Rede Globo
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Mada Seghete
Branch
My main learning after dozens of conversations with the market over the past few weeks – there is a lot of uncertainty. Apple proposed SKAdNetwork – a solution that solves the privacy issues that Apple tackles but has so many limitations that it’s unlikely to be widely adopted in the short term. While the intention behind these changes are good – user privacy is incredibly important and Branch has been an advocate for user privacy since the beginning – this move felt like Apple is an elephant in a room full of mice, not fully comprehending the effect that they are having on the rest of the ecosystem that has supported their success.
Mada is the Co-Founder of Branch
Visit Mada’s LinkedIn Profile
Read Branch’s Article on Embracing the Post-IDFA Era
Read How to Prepare Your Mobile App & Attribution Stack in Advance of the IDFA Change
Eric Seufert
Mobile Dev Memo
Eric has probably been the most-published individual in the mobile app industry on the IDFA changes. So, rather than trying to reduce all those articles and thoughts down to just a paragraph or two, Eric gave us the OK to link over to them so you can read everything yourself!
Apple Killed the IDFA: A Comprehensive Guide to the Future of Mobile Marketing
Apple Killed the IDFA Video Interview with John Koetsier
Dear Apple: These Changes Will Improve SKAdNetwork for Advertisers
Read Eric’s Twitter Thread on SKAdNetwork Change Predictions
Podcast: Surfing in a Squall: The Future of Mobile Without an IDFA, with Maor Sadra
Eric is the Legendary Founder of the Mobile Dev Memo Blog & Slack Team
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Follow Eric on Twitter
and Check Out His Classic Book “Freemium Economics”
Pierre Strubelt
LOVOO
The worst-case result is if we return to fingerprinting. If so, I need to decide to either stop buying iOS-traffic or to be sure that our in-house-anti-fraud-solution is doing a good job. Big mobile-players might move budgets to Android and Apple Search Ads. I’m excited to see how the costs will develop if that happens. In the long term I hope the Industry is able to convince Apple to implement an App-Store-Referrer, as we have it with Google.
Pierre is the Affiliate/Programmatic Manager (Lead) for LOVOO
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Alex Tarrand
DreamTeam
The move is good for consumers, bad for advertisers, and will cause some real changes to monetization. Ad Networks will start, or expedite, the trend of owning their own portfolios to gather internal User Data. Publishers will be fine. Retargeting houses will need to move to Machine Learning fingerprints. This is the risk of making money on platforms you don’t own, and this trend is exactly why we are seeing a boom in the synthetic data industry.
Alex is the Chief Product Officer for DreamTeam
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Meiry Vaknin
YouAppi
The mobile industry has weathered many changes. The deprecation of the IDFA is just the next challenge to overcome, and one of the biggest opportunities for innovation in the mobile industry. I believe that iOS 14 presents the following specific opportunities for marketers.
1. Since the sharing of IDFAs will be an opt-in system, it will be more competitive and expensive to bid on these IDFAs. For data-driven marketers, this presents a new opportunity to derive value from demographic and location data. These marketers will have a better advantage, as they hold the ability to bid higher. Strong data has helped this industry thrive, and is more important now than ever before.
2. There will be more value placed in app publisher and category data. Today, you can look for users based on their IDFA, and data you know about it, without regard for their app/category. Without IDFA, targeting categories or certain apps will become more important.
Meiry is the VP of Partnerships for YouAppi
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Henry Wang
Liftoff
Liftoff is excited and ready to take on this new challenge as we believe it represents a new frontier for mobile marketing with more privacy for users. It’s important to note that user modeling, which is most impacted by the IDFA change, is just one part of the performance equation; true performance is driven by several pillars including contextual features, creative tech, bidding strategy, supply, and traffic quality. We expect a short term impact as the industry reacts to this change and marketers adjust their KPIs to the new attribution paradigm but minimal long-term impact for players with the scale and experience to make probabilistic matching performant.
Henry Manages Product Marketing at Liftoff
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Yuriy Yashunin
Scalarr
Apple’s latest privacy updates for iOS 14 will reshape the way marketers approach in-app advertising. As the new opt-in nature of IDFA wreaks havoc, marketers will also have to deal with increased levels of fraud. This update makes it easier for fraudsters to hide their activity from basic rule-based anti-fraud solutions, which are already ineffective. Fortunately, these new rules have little to no impact on the analysis we perform at Scalarr, since we don’t rely solely on device IDs.
Yuriy is the CPO & Co-Founder of Scalarr
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App Growth Experts’ Thoughts:
Martje Abeldt | Patrick Amori | Juliana Assunção | Lior Barak | Michael Brooks | Jennifer Burrington | Allan Dionízio | Gadi Eliashiv | Vivek Girotra | David Gregson | Sergey Grytsuk | Michael Katz | André Kempe | Tim Koschella | Matthaus Krzykowski | Gabe Kwakyi | Jesse Lempiainen | David Leviev | Nathan Levin | Charles Manning | Paul Müller | Yaniv Nizan | Thomas Petit | Pau Quevedo | Brian Quinn | Peggy Anne Salz | Gabriel Sampaio | Mada Seghete | Eric Seufert | Pierre Strubelt | Alex Tarrand | Meiry Vaknin | Henry Wang | Yuriy Yashunin
Well, there you go! Over 30+ Mobile App Expert thought-leaders and what affects they believe Apple’s IDFA change will have on the industry!
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